“As commercial real estate values continue to shift, decisions should be based on today’s market realities—not yesterday’s expectations.”
– Caitlin MaMacaluso
Commercial real estate pricing showed fresh signs of strain in April, with price declines across CoStar’s major repeat-sale indices interrupting what had been a steady, if uneven, recovery. The pullback does not signal a reversal, but it does confirm what most active investors already sense: this market is not recovering in a straight line.
What the CoStar CCRSI Data Actually Shows
CoStar’s Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices track properties that have sold more than once, making the methodology a cleaner read on directional price movement than single-transaction averages. In April, both primary indices declined.
The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which reflects larger-dollar trades in core markets, fell 1.3% month-over-month. That marked the first monthly drop in 11 months. Year-over-year, the index still gained 3.5%. The equal-weighted index, which captures smaller deals across secondary and tertiary markets, fell 0.9% in April and is up 1.2% over the past 12 months.
Chad Littell, national director of U.S. capital markets analytics at CoStar, characterized the current pace plainly: “Seeing prices up 1% to 3% year over year, or anything similar, is historically what we’d expect to see in a stabilizing market. It’s just not the boom numbers we saw in 2021.”
Both indices remain below their 2022 peaks.
Office Is Still Pulling Down the Averages
The softness in April was not evenly distributed across property types. Office assets drove the majority of the value-weighted decline. Aggregated across April repeat office transactions, sale prices were $130.8 million below prior trading values.
The largest single-transaction decline of the month illustrates how far some office assets still have to travel: Woodland Pointe, an 185,000-square-foot office complex in Herndon, Virginia, sold for $40.2 million, down from a prior sale price of $100 million in 2008. That $59.8 million loss on a single trade is a reminder that distressed office repricing is still working through the system, even as other segments stabilize.
Industrial and Multifamily Are Holding Up
The contrast with industrial and multifamily was stark. Industrial repeat sales in April came in $87.5 million above their previous sale prices, effectively doubling prior values on an aggregated basis. Retail repeat sales were $34.8 million above previous prices, a 26% increase.
The month’s largest price gain went to Iconic on Alvarado, a 712-bed student housing property near San Diego State University, which sold for $144.3 million, $46.2 million above its 2016 sale price. Institutional-quality multifamily overall came in $79.4 million higher than prior transaction values.
The bifurcation is consistent with what the broader market has shown for the past two years: industrial and well-located residential assets continue to find buyers at appreciating prices, while office remains a drag on composite indices regardless of what other segments are doing.
What This Means for Portfolio Decisions Now
Littell’s framing is useful for investors trying to read the moment: “The commercial real estate recovery, after a downturn, is a multiyear process that accelerates and decelerates as it progresses through a broader trend higher.”
April’s data does not change the direction, but it does change the pace expectation. Investors underwriting deals on the assumption of continued monthly appreciation should stress-test that assumption. The year-over-year numbers remain positive, but the sequential declines in both indices suggest the near-term ceiling is lower than it looked three months ago.
For owners of office assets acquired before 2020, the Woodland Pointe transaction is a useful data point for impairment modeling and discussions on disposition timing. For those with industrial or multifamily exposure, the underlying fundamentals remain intact, but pricing expectations should be calibrated to stabilization rather than acceleration.
Real estate investors and portfolio managers evaluating asset performance against current market conditions should be running valuations against updated comps rather than prior-cycle assumptions. The gap between book value and market value in the office, in particular, is still closing.


